A Modest Prediction

The next week and month will be a good time for a downward slide in “the stock markets” to begin, if it will in the very short term future. This quarter has been a good one for traders and fund managers. The end-of-quarter is upon us, however, and they may not be able to trade the “what else should I do with it?” money* as well as they have been doing, for much longer. . . seeing we’re still looking at an increasingly-obvious “dead-cat bounce.”

*This is the money they have to have invested in something or else they won’t make commissions on it as part of their portfolio. This money buying stocks, bonds, and equities has softened the blow that would have been dealt to our economy by people managing their own money directly.

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics:

If you see a survey** with a result split somewhere in the 66% vs. 33% range, know this:

The 66% side is “normal people” almost all the time, unless the question was worded to get the result the poll sponsor wanted.* These are the people you know personally. They have half a clue, and can generally tell the difference between their asshole and a hole in the ground.

The 33% people are the lunatic fringe. You would be surprised to know somebody who answered on this side of the survey. People who are approximately as dumb as a box of rocks fall on this side of the question.

VFD, how can you say this with such confidence?

Because I know people, and I know surveys. Normal people hate taking surveys. They are a hassle, an intrusion into your schedule, and a really good one will have annoying, repetitive-sounding questions. You don’t answer surveys. Nobody you know answers surveys. Mail surveys will go straight to the trash. Phone surveys get hung-up on. The people who answer surveys
1) have land lines,
2) have nothing better to do with their time,
3) probably have no job, because survey callers call more during the day, or
4) are super-helpful, willing to participate even though it’s a hassle.
That narrows your respondent pool to people are either elderly, homemakers, or Democrat Lifetime Voters (read: welfare recipients). Your average homemaker is too busy for a survey. Your average old person will tell the survey taker to get off their lawn phone. So you’re left with people mostly sucking off the public teat. Even most of THEM don’t want to take the survey. So your pool is reduced to the very most helpful (willing to take a survey regardless) and the most feckless, willing to put up with the same amount of hassle as they are used to going through at the welfare office.

After postulating all that, you need to know that most of these people are still mostly-normal folks. They want the government to leave them alone (except for “_______” that they take from the government). They want to do what they want, within reason, and they want you to be able to do what you want, too (except keeping your own money). They want a reasonable amount of risk and security for themselves, businessmen, and their country. If you get a minority of THESE type of people on one side of an issue, rest assured that it is a very small fringe of the population feeling that way. For example: when President Obama’s approval rating is tanking amongst this lot, his approval rating in the population at large is very low indeed.

This is also the reason you should completely disregard polling results when making important decisions. The sample is skewed right off the bat, regardless of how good or bad the poll itself is.

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*Survey Question: would you rather have women raped and murdered, or beaten by their husbands?
Published Survey Result: 66% of survey respondants want women beaten by their husbands!

**Unless the survey is about some “popular culture” theme. Sports, Celebrities, TV shows, movies, etc., which can cause unreasonable levels of emotional involvement in otherwise normal people.

Parenting FAIL.

From the WSB 870AM radio news:

A baby was taken to an Atlanta area hospital and the Police are treating the injuries as an accident (for now).

The apartment has no hot water *cough* so the “mother” was boiling water for a bath.
She didn’t know *cough* her “friend” had already put the baby in the bath.
She didn’t look *cough* when she poured the hot water into the tub
Directly onto the poor baby.
Which was then rushed to the Emergency Department with severe burns.

WTF people!

I told this to one of the men here at work, and he summarized my opinion quite nicely:

“No, that’s okay, you just go back home. We’ll keep the baby.”

Weep, Sarah Brady, Weep!

Here are a few photos of the future of our nation:

#3 Field Stripping a Glock

Child Playing With Gun

#3 reassembling the same piece:

Child Playing With Gun

The blue thing in the bottom of the frame is my blue jeans-clad leg. I was right there, watching like a hawk the whole time. Rule #2 training begins in year #2.

Yes, my baby likes him some guns already. This is not a Good Thing, if you ask my Darling Wife, but forgiveness is easier to obtain than permission.

Note to people who are hyperventilating right now: You are looking at a child playing with something made of plastic and metal, the same materials that comprise a rather large Tonka dump truck we have in the backyard. An adult was present during this activity. No ammunition was even close to the gun. This is as dangerous as crossing the street or playing in the bathtub. If you do not think so, you have a phobia (specifically hoplophobia) and should consider seeking professional psychiatric counseling.

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Oh, and here is the result of a recent streetfight my boy got into:
Photobucket

(The street won)

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Another Skeleton In The White House Closet?

So it comes out that a former ACORN big-wig is now working for The Obama.

And?

Nepotism is the Chicago way! You’re upset that one of the good old boys is in there, but you’re not upset about tax-cheat Geithner?

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Elections have consequences. The consequence of this last one is also the price of Liberty. History majors and my shipmates from VQ2 should know what that is.

Roman Polanski: Git A Rope!

A 44 year-old male gets a 13 year-old girl drunk and high, then rapes her. He believes so strongly in the righteousness of his actions that he flees the country for the next 30+ years.

Now he’s been arrested and Poland and France are crying foul. The victim forgives him after all, and it was such a long time ago! Screw ’em. He did that crime and he needs to do the time. Let him rot to death in prison. You don’t get to rape little girls and go off without punishment.

The main reason for protesting Polanski’s arrest is that some people think raping little girls is okay. The think raping little boys is okay, also. Maybe this should post should have been titled: People Who Should Be Shot: One More (plus a few reporters).

Break out Your Vast Right Wing Conspiracy Gear

That’s right folks, once again you are a member of a Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, as designated by President Clinton this weekend. Long-time Rush Limbaugh fans may have coffee mugs and shirts informing the world that they are members of this conspiracy. It is time to break them out again!

Note: there is no conspiracy, right or left . . . it is a ‘conspiracy’ of common cause. There is nobody pulling strings behind President Obama, Nancy Pelosi, et. al. They are all leftists and think the same way. There is nobody pulling strings behind Michelle Malkin, Rush Limbaugh, or Sean Hannity; they all have similar inclinations.

The American Heritage Dictionary (which all American English speakers should be using, by the way) defines conspiracy as follows:

“An agreement to perform together an illegal, wrongful, or subversive act”

This requires a conference and agreement. If you and I did not sit down to conspire, but still both agree that 2+2=4, we are not co-conspirators, we are in agreement.

Duh?

Car Crash Test Videos: "!!!"

With apologies to those folks behind firewalls blocking YouTube (like the one where I work). . .

By now you may have seen this crashworthiness comparison: 1959 Chevy Bel Air vs. 2009 Chevy malibu. Watch until at least 1:02 when the Malibu film starts playing. They don’t make ’em like they used to. The Bel Air basically disappears all the way back to the driver, who would be quite dead. The malibu driver has a rumpled shirt from the airbag.

Mercedes C300 vs. Smart ForTwo The Smart got pwn’t, and the driver wasn’t having a good day either. Watch that video and consider that it’s a 40MPH test against a midsized sedan. Then consider a 55-75MPH crash with a fullsize pickup or a tractor/trailer truck.

“No.”

VW Bus vs. Wall: Click & Clack, The Tappet Brothers, refer to the front bumper of these things as “the driver’s legs” and it appears they were being optimistic. More like “the rear passengers’ legs.” Ouch.

Picking on VW for a minute, here is an old Beetle and a rabbit, vs. a wall: Note: both drivers almost kiss the wall, with a bit of compressed car between them and it.

BUT let’s not be too hard on the krauts . . . those older German cars stood up like tanks, compared to these newer Chinese cars which appear to be made of old soda cans:
You buy Chinese car!
You like! Very high quality!

"It’s Not Sexual! It’s Nice!"

From Yahoo! News

Iran test-fires a surface-to-surface missile that can reach into Russia and Southern Europe. Israel is well inside that envelope. That is, the same Iran that was just discovered to have another nuclear weapons material manufacturing plant. Exposed (in part) by our guy who is still saying we want to put daisies down their rifle barrels.

That would be the same Iran whose President Ahmadinacrazyguy repeatedly has come right out and said he’d like to see Israel wiped off the map.

You remember when Michael Jackson testified(!) that “It’s not sexual?” Here comes ahmadinejad with the “It’s for peaceful purposes!”