I’ve been expecting the global economy to crash and the USA economy to stagnate, beginning maybe the middle of last year to the end of this year. The systematic problems that caused the 2008/2009 crash were never properly fixed, and the bubbles are being blown up again.
Here is one bit of speculation that puts the decline start pretty soon: Mid-February 2018. If (big IF) BTC is actually a useful leading indicator, look for the amazingly-overvalued DJIA to plummet soon. If on the other hand BTC and all the other cryptos are just a flash in the pan that was going to fizzle anyway, maybe the ongoing bloodbath in cryptocurrency markets won’t mean anything at all:
So, we’ll see, I guess.
Bitcoin as a leading indicator? Michael Shedlock
Crypto bloodbath, Michael Shedlock
In related news (the relation being upward trends heading downward), depending heavily on whom you ask, we could start to see undeniable global cooling starting around the year 2020. This of course would be greeted with pats on the back from people who made lots of policies that changed nothing . . . but actually it would be related to a natural phenomenon known as the MDO of the GMT, which is predicted by some to begin cooling soon. We’ll see.
CO2 vs. GMT speculation from Girma Orssengo, PhD
A new article is up that does (I think) a good job of obliterating the hysterical worry-inducing modern narrative of catastrophic, sudden sea level rising all around the world. Read it for yourself: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/19/sea-level-rise-and-fall-part-3-computational-hubris/
While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease.
That right there is a promise, and you can take it to the bank. Nevermind all the actual science out there supporting the idea that mankind isn’t destroying the world be setting its thermostat a couple of degrees higher. A Christian can take comfort in knowing that God built this planet for us with loads of automatic temperature regulation. So it’s nice to see the new POTUS saying he doesn’t want to continue to transfer taxpayer dollars into croney deals with “green” companies. But it’s extra nice to see that the new tone in Washington, D.C. is echoing loud enough around the world that (for now?) the G20 is toning down its rhetoric on the subject.
This is as much an online placeholder for me as for you. In the future, when people wonder “what do you mean, scientists adjust the temperature data to make it look warmer?” I can point them to this article right here. One of the two satellite-based temperature records wasn’t showing any warming, so the guys doing the recording have decided to make their very good data fit some iffy data, so it will agree with the politicians’ conclusions.
The Global Warmenists had their day in the sun, and now the sun is not as warm as it was – this has lead to global temperatures being about the same for 18 years running, but the religion of Climate Change* (*in the warming direction only!) has been having some apparent successes at getting Capitalism to kill itself in recent years anyway.
Then this comes along and it may wreck the entire socialist utopia financed by carbon taxes! What do you mean, a new Ice Age? How is Brussels supposed to tax THAT? Oh, well, I’m sure they’ll think of a way.
The elderly reader will recall that a coming Ice Age was announced before, right before the mainstream switched to Global Warming
In a related anecdote, I recently had to smash someone’s fears. I got into an online debate with a Warmenist and they produced a dog whistle argument – the poles are melting! The Pacific Islanders will have to move to new homes! I pointed out that the Antarctic ice is at normal extents just now, and then they highlighted a common point for people who truly believe in *anthropogenic* global warming: dire ignorance of basic science. This person was concerned about the *North* pole melting causing sea levels to rise. The conversation went dead shortly after I pointed them to this website.
It continues to be increasingly apparent that climatology is not a mature science. The debate is not closed, and the science is in fact far from settled. The latest thing you probably won’t hear from American news networks:
The earth has yet another natural cooling system and it’s stronger than we thought. This is, of course, NOT accounted for in the zOMGlobalWarming computer models. You know, it’s almost like somebody put some thought into maintaining this a nice place for us to live. That Designer sure would have to be Intelligent…
And when it comes to what we do know, have a look at how carefully they treat the data to reflect reality 100% of the time: 99% of this one dataset is *ahem* estimated!
Because it’s all about the science and not about politics AT ALL just pure science and we all agree* – and because it’s costing money to fight back against people who disagree, plus making our sweet, sweet grant money for Science research look in doubt…
Dear President Climate Believer,
Please prosecute these people making our financial future look in doubt under organized crime laws, because their science disagrees with the science all the Right Sorts of People agree with.
A whole bunch of Climate Religionists
*you remember when we all agreed the Earth was the center of the solar system? They persecuted the skeptics of THAT theory also. But who was right- the Consensus or Copernicus?**
**orignally, I had put “the consensus or the people still asking questions” but this flows much better 🙂
DW went into the laundry room and turned off the light. The garage lights shine through. She opened the door and switched off those as well. And slammed the door.* She came into the lighted living room, saw the lit-up dining room, and three bedrooms and a bathroom, all with their lights on. And our house is adequately lit by the evening sun, which was streaming in through the windows. She asked the family (all congregated in the living room), “Why are all these lights on?!”
This seemed like a good question which really should have a good response. I racked my brains. Earth Day was last week. Last week for Earth Day, I frustrated her a little with my mode of celebration – which is of course, leaving lights on unnecessarily. But that was last week. I couldn’t say it was Earth Day again!
VFD: It’s Earth Day!
DW: I’ts not Earth Day.
VFD: It’s Earth Day every day!
The Zoo: LOL
*The door has a stiff weather seal around it, and you either have to slam or close gently and push with a shoulder. Everybody slams the door, or else it stays half-open and you’re air conditioning the whole world!
2014 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD!!!!*
*by 0.01 degrees
*in a system with a margin of error of 0.1 degrees
*because of some oceanic weather we don’t like to mention
*and we think it’s more unlikely than likely to be correct, so run those presses boys!
*unless you look at our newest, most recent and accurate measurements, in which case it’s cooler than the record by 0.01 degrees
I keep hearing about how it was a record-warm year despite all the record-cold land surface temperatures and it reminds me of “shenanigans” where I’m the old guy in the scene.
“Once people can understand how climate sensitivity is determined, they will realize how little evidence for alarm there is.” – Dr. Matt Briggs
A new climate model has been developed that (crucially) does not overestimate the feedback mechanisms in the global climate, and (also crucially) does not mis-apply an equation that works for electronics but not for the global climate. This new model predicts warming in line with observation, and says there is nothing to worry about.
But the problem is, if nobody worries, then global capitalism need not be stopped. Third world nations will be allowed to go on progressing toward the standards of living of western civilization and nobody will be able to keep them down short of imposing unpleasant military controls! My friends, this new model must be discredited at all costs, or the Revolution will be discredited in the eyes of the proletariat! Uh, I mean, or people will stop reducing their carbon footprints and carry on exploiting global resources as if there is nothing bad happening!
If you don’t read Watts Up With That, you should start. It’ll keep you from being scared about man-made climate change by showing you actual science that says there isn’t any.