People who are paying attention to Watts Up With That will perhaps have beaten me to this realization, but it just occurred to me and although it seems rather obvious in retrospect, I made a spiffy visualization that I felt like sharing.
Ok so we’re supposed to panic about the loss of area of arctic sea ice, right? The poor polar bears and their fraudulently-claimed-as-dying photographs, a dEaTH SpiRaL of shrinking summer ice extents, etc., right? Except that the sea ice seems to have not got the memo, and it has pretty much stabilized for the last decade:
ok, cool, but we’re still going to die from the global warming though right?
Yeah not so much on that, too. The number to watch is the temperature anomaly reported by the University of Huntsville at Alabama. The UAH temperature record is more-or-less a straight recording of the global temperature, without shenanigans like parking temperature monitoring stations at the end of a runway, or putting the thermometer in a box painted brown such as have been producing some of the recent RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE headlines. UAH shows a gradual increase from the start of the record, a sharp increase during the El Nino event in 1998, and then it’s pretty much flat after that as well. Dig it:
I saw the NOAA sea ice chart and noticed there’s a knee right around 1998. Then I remembered the super El Nino that seemingly shifted the temperature of the world right around the same time, and the hamsters got on the wheel and started running . . . and I decided to see for myself what these charts look like, overlaid.
So I flipped the Annual Sea Ice Extent chart, stretched it to overlay the scale of time, and stretched it again to overlay the extent with UAH’s global temperature anomaly. I shouldn’t have been surprised that the match was pretty much bang-on, but I was a little. Behold: UAH 6.0 temperature vs. NOAA Sea Ice Extent:
Maybe I stretched it a little too much vertically, but you get the idea: One might be forgiven for thinking that these numbers have something to do with each other! Anyway, if my hunch plays out and we get some global cooling because of the low solar activity in the next (looks at wristwatch) year or three or ten, the Arctic sea ice should start to rebound nicely, and we’ll end up back in the gray area on this chart:
at which point, either we’ll be feasting on headlines about anything but this news of global significance, or if it is reported, the USA will be ignored as a world leader in the reduction of CO2 emissions on a fairly frequent basis (Paris Accord withdrawal notwithstanding) and the role of Sol in the temperature of the Earth will be staunchly ignored.
We’ll see, I guess.